Sunken Cost Fallacy

As humans, we have many different tendencies that lead us to be irrational and make it more difficult for us to achieve our goals. If we want to be goal-oriented, we should root out those tendencies, not only in the arguments of others but also in our own decisions. That might sound fairly obvious, but it isn’t that easy to do. Philosophy is all about self-awareness, at least according to the Stoics, and just doing a quick Google search about logical fallacies gives you access to a whole host of different rhetorical tricks. However, I have a feeling that some people focus on the attempts of others to try and convince them with fallacies, and they don’t think enough about how they might be using these arguments on themselves.

I think one of the most dangerous and common logical fallacies is the Sunk Cost Fallacy. If you don’t know what this fallacy is, it’s essentially the argument that, because I put a large amount of x (x can be almost anything, like time, energy, money, etc) into a particular decision, I need to stick to that decision. In some situations, this line of thinking isn’t so wrong; for example, let’s say I am almost finished rewriting a paper for school because I disliked the first version and then, when I am about to finish, I realize that the first version was better than I thought. In fact, it’s only slightly worse than my second version. Well, my second version is almost done, so I might as well finish it, since it is at least slightly better, and submit it so I can end up with a slightly better submission. After all, since I already spent all of that effort writing most of it, it won’t cost me much effort to finish it and the reward justifies the effort I will spend from this point on, even if it doesn’t justify writing the second version as a whole.

You might say, what’s wrong with that example? You would be correct for asking, because that was a very logical decision! But let me change that example a little bit. Now, I have finished writing my second version and realize that the first version is actually better! Well, I don’t want that second version to go to waste. Since I worked so hard on that second version, I might as well submit it. Now you might ask, why would you do that? The second version is worse, why submit it? But some of you may be reminded of a similar decision that you’ve made in the past. We humans generally like to retroactively justify our past actions because we often do not like to admit that we are wrong, at least sometimes. Since I am unwilling to admit that I was wrong to spend all that time on the second version, I submit it to try and justify my efforts and I am rewarded with a worse grade.

I have to say, it really concerns me how often this fallacy shows up in fictional media involving battles and war-style conflicts. In particular, characters often argue that since their allies died for a cause, they have to see it through. This isn’t overtly irrational, but it is ambiguous in terms of how logical it is. On the one hand, if the argument is that they believe that carrying out the will of their fallen is morally good in spite of the fact that they died for the cause, that would accurately follow the morals that they set forth. Whether or not that kind of morality is correct is a far more complicated question, so I won’t address that here. However, this statement could also be saying, “I have to retroactively justify the effort of my fallen allies”, which would be an instance of the sunk cost fallacy, because there is no need to justify that effort, there is only a need to reach a specific outcome, while following certain rules depending on what morality you subscribe to.

To improve your decision-making (and I’m not saying this is easy), it’s almost always a good idea to ask yourself, Why am I taking this course of action? Is it morally good, or does it lead me to some desirable outcome? Does it make me a good person (these are all references to specific types of moral philosophy)? If the answer to all of these questions is no, then you should really figure out why you are doing something and decide whether it’s a good idea or not. If there’s any lesson to be learned from this particular fallacy, it’s this: at least internally, don’t be afraid to admit when you are wrong. Logically think through your decisions, and if a decision doesn’t make sense, be ready to switch things up. You won’t regret it, both in the immediate and distant future.